German grocery retail has barely grown its physical footprint since 2019. Per McKinsey and EuroCommerce’s State of Grocery Retail Europe 2026, German retail space actually contracted slightly over that period (-2.4%), while the European average expanded by 4.6%.

And yet sales per square metre in Germany rose 38.9% over the same period – ahead of the European average of 29.8%. Some of that reflects how grocery leases capture inflation into turnover over time, but it’s also a genuine sign that German grocers are getting more from the space they already have, rather than growing by opening more stores or bigger ones.

That’s happening against a more cautious consumer backdrop than the European average, not an easier one. Intent to look for ways to save money actually rose slightly in Germany this year, even as it eased across Europe overall, and appetite for premium products fell further in Germany than in almost any other market the report covers. One genuine bright spot: German consumer confidence improved slightly on the year, while the European average declined.

Put together, that’s a more demanding growth environment than most of the continent, and German grocers are still finding more revenue per square metre than the European average within it. For real estate anchored by exactly these operators, that combination – resilient, well-indexed income and formats built to earn it – is the case for grocery-anchored assets in its clearest form: rental value here isn’t riding on more space or an easier consumer, it’s riding on the strength of the lease and the quality of the tenant running the store already in place.

Important Note
This update is for information purposes only. Shareholders in Greenman OPEN are not required to act upon any of the information contained in this update.

This update may include forecasts, forward-looking statements, and estimates. There is a significant risk that targets and milestones mentioned in this update may not be met or may not be met in the expected timeline, and the performance of Greenman OPEN may be affected if these targets are not met.

This update may also include current and historic information. Historic data and therefore past performance is not a good predictor of future performance.

Nothing in this update should be considered as investment advice or as a recommendation to invest.

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