Food inflation in Germany hit 12.7% through 2022 and 2023, and the natural assumption was that grocery tenants were under pressure. However, the data says the opposite – headline inflation ran at roughly half that rate, and because rents index to the general price level while grocery turnover moves with food prices, tenants‘ occupancy costs actually fell. France and Spain followed the same pattern, with food inflation of 11.8% and 11.7%.

That mechanic is one of the central findings of Signals to Savour, the Greenman Group’s new report on European grocery real estate. Written by Ronan Molony and Frederick Bley, it covers ten countries, 368 million people and more than €869.9 billion of annual grocery turnover, a market comparable in scale to the United States. It draws on Greenman’s own portfolio and tenant data, analytics from edyfi, and market experts including JLL, Colliers and GfK.

Across Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland, every grocery format now sits within a sustainable occupancy cost band of 2% to 7%, with leases that typically run 10 to 15 years. The report concludes that grocery-anchored real estate has separated from the wider retail segment and now stands as an independent asset class – one of the most defensive income-producing asset classes in European property. Pricing reflects this. The yield correction in all five primary markets was shallow and short-lived, while office yields rose sharply and were still expanding into 2026.

However, the markets are not interchangeable. Germany and Poland are discounter-led, Spain is supermarket-led and France is hypermarket-weighted, and that mix shapes where liquidity is deepest and where network growth is still available. The report profiles each of the five primary markets in detail, along with Romania, the Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden and the Czech Republic.

It also looks at a gap the sector has been slow to close. SFDR and EU Taxonomy reporting now require accurate, property-level data that many portfolios are not yet equipped to produce. The report sets out what that means for investors, retailers, policy makers, and property managers.

To read the full findings, click here to download Signals to Savour for free.

Important Note
This update is for information purposes only. Shareholders in any Greenman fund are not required to act upon any of the information contained in this update.

This update may include forecasts, forward-looking statements, and estimates. There is a significant risk that targets and milestones mentioned in this update may not be met or may not be met in the expected timeline, and the performance of Greenman funds may be affected if these targets are not met.

This update also may include current and historic information. Historic data and therefore past performance is not a good predictor of future performance.

Nothing in this update should be considered as investment advice or as a recommendation to invest.

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